Agent Blogs

We battled through an interesting year in real estate and one that we should be able to take some lessons from in regards to understanding the market and being able to explain its past and current position.

The last half of 2008, especially the last three months were very challenging to our market and left most wondering just how bad it was going to get. The first quarter of 2009 began in simular fashion but once the spring run took place, our local market began to pull itself out of its fall and we spent the last 9 months rebounding from the fall we took. In total, it has been about an 18 month run of the downs and now ups in our local market. In most areas now, our average sale price is back to 2008 levels or very close which is a good sign of strengthening. I anticipate good times ahead in our market but not as they may have been 3-5 years ago in our highs.

Categories of concern is still the days on the market which continues to be lowering but still remains up over previous years. List to sale ratios also are lower than previous years numbers which is more due to pricing not taking into account the zero equity growth but pricing according to assumed growth. Days on the market may also be effected by the same thing.

Inventory levels remained lower than 2008 levels in most areas except Innisfil where they saw a 1.84% increase. All areas finished out 2009 with lower existing inventory than year end of 2008. Sold inventory was up in all areas at a minimum of 5% with Oro seeing a 12% increase in sold inventory. Expired or cancelled listings were also down which all lends to a Sellers market with lower inventory or choices for Buyers.

When we look at whether the market is a SELLERS, BUYERS or BALANCED market, in all areas we were BALANCED in Innisfil, Oro and Springwater where Barrie and Essa were in SELLERS market positions.

Innisfil was the slowest to rebound with this areas starting to see positive numbers beginning in Q4 2009 and should continue through 2010. This may be due in large part to the new home builders in the area and how they are effecting the resale market in that area.

Other than Q1 2009, trends for the time of year were fairly predictable throughout the year and anticipate this to be the case for 2010.

My forcast for 2010 sees a modest increase in average sale price between 1-3%, average days on the market to continue to decrease 2-4 days on average overall and to see growth in inventory sold. I anticipate all areas to be either in a BALANCED or SELLERS market position by years end.

Events to consider in 2010 is the HST tax taking effect July 1st. This will create a bit of a rush before the tax takes effect but once it is in place, should not effect our market. Interest rates showing signs of rising in late 2010 could create some further activity along with the possibility of changing down payment minimums and amortizations.